YEAR THAT ENDED - 2016

2016 - The year that taught us much

Another year, another set of learnings. 2016 prepared us for 2017.

A comprehensive & useful resource for major events of 2016

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The year that taught us much

Like all years, we started 2016 with so much hope and happiness. We worked hard to fulfill our aspirations. We succeeded, and sometimes we failed. But we surely learnt our lessons. Here we present a useful listing of lessons from 2016 under these heads - Politics (India / World / Regional), Economy (India / World), All Others and Positive Developments. Read, learn, grow!

Politics 2016

• India – strong polarization in many states between BJP and local parties
• Regional parties kept objecting to central projects with branding of the PM, claiming that in a federal setup like India’s (quasi-federal actually), it is neither desirable nor proper. The Prime Minister responded by ever more aggressive launch of newer schemes and ideas!
  

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• India – the 2015 debate over tolerance and intolerance
• The liberal versus right-wing debate assumed great significance in 2015 but fizzled out in 2016. But both lobbies are strong, and the new forces are redefining the contours of power and influence, inviting a huge backlash. The BJP is unrelenting in its push to uproot the carefully nurtured “liberal” lobbies.
  

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• India – the Demonetisation move by PM Modi - unexpected and disruptive!
• It brought old political rivalries to the fore. Bengal’s TMC and grand old party Congress bared their fangs openly, and have attempted to maximize the political mileage through opposition to this move.
  

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• India – crucial state elections make things trickier for everyone
• The major state elections in 2017 may set the tone for the political battles to be fought in 2019 Parliament elections, with the BJP throwing everything into the UP battle. A clear win can make it invincible for some time.
  

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• World politics – taking a turn to the Right
• Worldwide, it was clearly felt that large sections of populations were up against the liberal order. Major events like Brexit, Europe’s anti-immigrant feelings, Trump’s victory and Italian referendum all point in that direction. Terror attacks in Europe further forced a cautious retreat of the liberals.
  

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• World politics – An even sharper turn in the US
• It became clear by year-end that Trump administration would not allow the present equations to continue in the same form, and will pressurize the Chinese to some new trade rules.  Sharp statements from President-elect shocked the establishment in Washington into disbelief, especially over issues like Taiwan and NATO. The year-end victory of Russian-supported Bashar Assad regime in retaking Aleppo complicated matters.
  

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• Regional – China and Pakistan in unison against India
• It became clearer with each passing month that despite all efforts, the China-Pak unison against India will neither be diluted, nor modified. China protected Pakistan’s interest on all fora, including the BRICS meet, UN and NSG. India decided to up the ante, by naming more colleagues of Hafiz Saeed, to make it tough for the Chinese to play the game for long.
  

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• Regional – Russia drawing closer to China
• Chinese demand for raw materials and Russian need for revenues brought both the giants together. China in turn started leveraging the new found friendship against Indian interests, by bringing Russia a step closer to Pakistan. India reacted by reminding Russia of old friendship, and doling out huge defence contracts.
  

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• Regional – India building bridges with S.Asian & others
• In order to create strong strategic footprints, India kept working on building new and stronger relations with many nations in South Asia, Indian Ocean Region, and Japan. Chinese responded by huge financial aid and military hardware sale to nations like Bangladesh. The game grows deadlier with every passing year.
  

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• Regional – OBOR-CPEC, South China sea
• China keeps pumping funds into projects designed to give it an Asian edge through the ultra-ambitious One Belt One Road project (brainchild of Xi Jinping) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passing through PoK. China’s claims over South China sea were rejected by an international tribunal, forcing China to harden its stand in the region by military hardware deployment. India drew closer to Vietnam and others in the region.
  

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Economy 2016

• India – Unexpected monetary system transformation by Executive
• The PM decided to totally change the discourse on how black money is combated. Demonetisation of high-denomination notes has unleashed a tsunami of change in local economy, with effects that’ll be felt for a long time. And no one is quite sure of the actual impact.
  

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• India – Economy still struggling with investment momentum
• The private sector investment quantum remained muted throughout the year. Public spending was not found wanting, but was not enough to pump-prime all sectors of our economy. The outlook 2017 remains mixed. Though India retained the “Fastest growing economy” tag by overtaking China, amid a failing global economy. India's GDP grew 7.5 % yoy between January and March, faster than the previous quarter's 7.3 %. It grew by 7.6% in June, and later by 7.1%. Demonetisation has brought some serious worries.
  

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• India – Biggest tax reform still in the works
• The GST regime is to be rolled out, either by April or latest by July-August 2017. Demonetisation has thrown a spanner in the works, with some states not coming on board on the most crucial pending issues like dual control over taxpayers etc. Meanwhile, the rupee continues to plunge amid huge capital outflows from India (due to a strengthening dollar & capital flows into US after Fed rate hikes).
  

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• India – Corporates unsure of 2017 and finer aspects of GST, but playing along
• The corporate sector needs time to prepare itself for the GST regime by reengineering its internal processes and system. However, in case GST is rolled out in April 2017 itself, the corporate sector struggling with demand slump post-demonetisation may find the going very tough. And to top it all, India started witnessing an absolutely unexpected, and the biggest corporate battle so far when the Tatas and the Mistry camp entered into a no-holds barred fight.
  

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• India – Cashless, Less Cash, No Cash
• The strange and unexpected fallout of demonetization was a few big winners (PayTM and others), some government re-defining (less cash) and a lot of misery for large sections of population (no cash). Sensing the public’s inconvenience and internet-issues, on 30 Dec, the PM launched the BHIM app (BHarat Interface for Money) which promises to be the friendliest way of online payments through Aadhaar, enabled by NPCI and UPI.
  

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• India – RBI in the news all the way – attack on NPAs, Rexit, MPC, Demonetisation
• First, it was Raghuram Rajan who led a battle against the crony capitalism which had bled Indian banking system to near-death through Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). His friction with the top political executive over many issues was apparent, and he departed without a second term (called Rexit by some). Secondly, the Government constituted a broad-based Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of 6 members (3 from the government) to broadbase the process of rate setting. And finally, the new Governor Urjit Patel found himself in a rather tough spot when the entire weight of expectations from demonetization – and subsequent remonetisation – fell on his shoulders. So far, he has earned only criticism for his relative silence. He has reiterated the March 2017 deadline for NPA clean-up in PSU banks.
  

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• India – Attack of the Amazons!
• While India continues to add internet users at a blistering pace, we seem to be handing over rich markets of the future to the Americans and Chinese on a platter, with huge investments coming in from companies like Amazon, Uber, Alibaba and others either directly or through invested companies (startups). Locals like Flipkart and Ola cried wolf and demanded government protection. Liberals cried wolf and castigated the call for protection.
  

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• India – Budget 2017 a big hope
• Indians - citizens, corporates and everyone - are expecting a lot from the coming Budget after experiencing a tough time in the demonetization frenzy. It is unclear if the government will bring major tax reforms, or will tinker superficially. The economy may need a major push now, given the slowdown visible in many cash-dependent sectors. Breaking with the colonial tradition, the Union Budget is to be presented on 01 Feb, instead of Feb end. Millions who were expecting big-ticket announcements on 31st Dec evening from the PM, were pretty disappointed!
  

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• World – Trade growth tardy, WTO unsure
• What was earlier expected to be an year of recovery for the world economy ended up being not quite so. The trade growth in the world (exports, imports, volumes) remained lackluster, and the Chinese struggled with more fiscal stimulus to local companies to avoid social unrest.
  

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• World – Collapse of the Trans Pacific Partnership
• Obama had crafted a strong vision of a non-China (and non-India) Trans Pacific Partnership of major economies. The Trump camp has denounced and rejected the trade grouping, calling it an attack on local American jobs. TPP has collapsed, and the 11 nations that joined it have no clue what to do next with it. China stands to gain.
  

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Defence, Military, Terrorism 2016

• Terrorism – Pathankot Airforce Base attack, India
• Terrorists reportedly from the Jaish-e-Mohammad group attacked the base on January 02, 2016. Some security-men were martyred before being neutralized. It brought to an abrupt end the bonhomie created by the energetic and unconventional diplomatic approach taken by PM Narendra Modi with Pakistan earlier (Modi-Sharif had met in London just a few days ago). The chill has persisted and put paid to all hopes of a rapprochement (harmony) between the two neighbours.
  

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• Terrorism – Indian military kills Burhan Wani
• After the poster-boy for Pak Hizbul Mujahideen Burhan Wani was killed in military action on July 08, 2016, many disgruntled citizens thronged his funeral procession. To add fuel to fire, Pak PM Sharif announced July 19 as ‘black day’ to express ‘solidarity’ with Kashmiris. At the same time, massive protests continued inside “Azad Kashmir” against Pak military’s tactics, and in Gilgit-Baltistan against forced acquisition of lands by the Chinese-Pakistanis for CPEC!
• Terrorism – Uri Base attack
• Terrorists attacked the Army base at Uri near the LOC on September 18, 2016, and 17 Indian soldiers were martyred. This sealed the fate of the upcoming SAARC summit, and set the stage for increased hostility between the two neighbours.
• Military – Surgical strikes against Pak terror camps
• On Sept 28/29, 2016, Indian military carried out an across-the-border attack on terror camps located beyond the Line of Control (LoC) and inside “Azad Kashmir” to inflict heavy casualties. Pakistan rejected all claims, and opposition parties in India criticized the government for trying to gain political advantage out of the strikes. Congress claimed such strikes took place during its reign also.
  

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• Terrorism – SAARC feels the heat of terrorism
• The existence of SAARC came under a cloud after India boycotted the scheduled November SAARC summit (Islamabad), and many other members pulled out too. India later brought BIMSTEC to the fore in the BRICS summit at Goa (15-16 October 2016), and suggested a non-Pakistan regional grouping.
  

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• Defence – US announces India is a Major Defence Partner
• The outgoing Obama administration brought the hard work and Modi-Obama harmony to near fruition in December 2016 by getting the Congress pass the legislation declaring India as the MDP, and making it tough for new administration to reverse any gains. Aid to Pakistan is also made conditional now.
• Defence – India successfully tests Agni V missile
• On December 26, India successfully test-fired the nuclear-capable Agni V missile with a stated range of 5000 km. China cautiously said it hoped for strategic balance in south Asia, and that “it hoped the test was as per UN norms.” India is now working on a much more ambitious Agni VI programme.
  

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• Terrorism – Europe feels the heat
• Terror attacks continued in Europe fanning the fire of right-wing backlash against liberal order led by leaders like Angela Merkel of Germany. The latest truck attack in Berlin Germany (19 Dec) claimed 12 lives. A similar attack in Nice, France on 14 July claimed 86 lives. The 22 March attack at Brussels in Belgium claimed 35 lives. Minor attacks happened with a depressing frequency.
• Defence – Indian Ocean is India’s
• As the Chinese encirclement of Indian strategic presence continued to grow across south Asia, India significantly increased its presence across the Indian Ocean Region, building bridges with nations and increasing its naval presence.

The Positives 2016

• Cleanliness Drive!
• The Government’s Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan has started showing results. People are far more conscious now, and the musical garbage collection van is an everyday affair!
  

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• Political agreement over a Common Market
• All parties supported the creation of a national market for goods and services in India, be lending support to GST legislation, and the GST Council.
• Energetic Foreign Policy 
• India’s foreign policy received a major thrust by the Prime Minister himself, who energetically kept pushing India’s agenda worldwide.
  

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• Indian startups in limelight
• Many Indian startups joined the Unicorn club (companies with $ 1 billion or more in valuation), bringing weight to Indian entrepreneurship story
• India remains net-neutral
• The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) blocked attempts by corporations (including Facebook – Free Basics) to charge differentially for services over the net.
• Make in India, Tesla
• Elon Musk of Tesla Inc., US, wanted to open a Gigafactory in India to make lithium ion batteries required for electric cars.
• Positive foreign policy, domestically
• Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj continued to help citizens through Twitter, in most imaginative ways.
• ISRO repeated its success, successfully
• 2016 saw nearly 34 satellite launches by ISRO, and in September, 20 satellites were simultaneously launched into orbit on a single rocket!
  

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• Women earned some more freedom
• The Supreme Court ruled in favour of women’s entry into temples. Sabrimala temple in Kerala had traditionally banned women between 10 to 50 years from entry, due to menstruation taboos.
• India’s internet users second largest
• After China, it’s India in terms of number of internet users. The future markets belong to Asia, for sure!

Wishing you a splendid 2017 !

Are reservations in job justified? : THE CONCLUSION

Yes, They Are:The obnoxious caste system might have served some purpose when it originated centuries ago but now it is a hindrance to our social progress. The claim of the apologists of caste system that caste was changeable according to merit and competence of the individual and was not strictly hereditary is disapproved by the story of Karna in the Mahabharat who in spite of being equal to or even more in valor, skill, warfare and charity than the Kshatriyas was made to suffer humiliation for being a Sut Putra (Son of a Shudra) till his death. Again we have the story of Eklavya, a low-born. Dronacharya, the teacher of Arjun, the great archer of the epic Mahabharat, demanded his thumb as Gurudakshina (Fee), even though he had refused to teach him archery fearing that he might surpass. Thus centuries of oppression and untouchability cannot be undone in just a few years of honest and sincere efforts. Therefore, the makers of our Constitution stipulated reservation for scheduled castes and tribes for a period of ten years but it had to be extended again and again because they could not come up in such a short time. It is only fair and just to reserve some seats for these deprived and oppressed people, who could not enter even temples and educational institutions. The question of any inefficiency creeping in or harm or injustice being done to others does not arise because one, these classes too must fulfill certain basic minimum educational or technical qualification, and, too, some states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka have over 50 percent reservations yet their efficiency is second to none. Again, no hue and cry of lowering efficiency or standards is raised when a son of a rich father gets admission in a technical or professional course in spite of lower marks. Then why these double standards?

Our constitution lays down equality among equals and not among un equals. Through the policy of reservation, our depressed and backward class people are sought to be brought to the status of equality with others. It is really shameful for a modern civilized society like ours that even after 55 years of independence, a scheduled caste barat party is not allowed to go through a Rajput dominated village near Agra, young lovers belonging to higher lower caste are hanged in village panchayats in broad daylight without a whimper of protest! Hence, reservation is an affirmative action to bring about socio-economic betterment of these classes and must, therefore, continue.

Being a Welfare State, we owe it to the weaker sections to ensure their well-being through governmental action. Their economic backwardness, poor state of education and social deprivation are all due to our society which even at this late hour should not prevent their upliftment. It is because of this oppressive, humiliating and torturous caste system and resultant deprivation that has led thousands of scheduled castes people (From Dr. Ambedkar to Ramraj now Uditraj) to get converted en masse into other religions. Resort to such conversions as a means of escape from caste-based oppression is a shame on the entire society.

If the Brahmins can work as pujaris and act as agents of God for all auspicious occasions like births, marriages, deaths, etc. as a birthright, why should the Hindu society not view some reservation for backward class people with charity and generosity.

Even now the total reservation is only 49.5 percent for about 76.5 per cent of the population while over 50 per cent seats are available for about 23.5 per cent candidates of higher castes. Besides, true social justice can come with a price and reservations are the prices that are privileged classes should be willing to pay so that the accident of birth is no more used against their lowborn brethren.
Mahatma Gandhi once said, “Swaraj for me means freedom for the meanest for our countrymen. I am not interested in freeing India merely from the English yoke. I am bent upon freeing India from any yoke whatsoever.” It goes to prove that Father of the Nation would ensure individual freedom for one and all. But can such freedom be possible for the exploited and oppressed weaker sections?

The depressed and backward class people cannot fare well in an open competition because of centuries of suppression and deprivation, and, hence, they cannot develop themselves. In this modern age of knowledge explosion through mass media, they may get alienated from the main stream of our society. This can generate dangerous consequences for the nation as a whole. Therefore, to avoid such an eventuality, we should accept our downtrodden brethren with an open arm and give them a helping hand in realizing their potential. This way only we can achieve our common destiny, for didn't our ancient seers proclaimed “Sarve Bhawantu Sukhinah ma Kashchid duhkh bhag bhavet”. (Let all be happy, let no one be miserable).

Conclusion:Inequalities will always exist. Society will always try to set right these inequalities in some ways. Policy checks here should be to see if the solution is working in the long term or not.

I hope you got a complete 360 degree view of the situation. Now build your own perspective keeping both the poles in mind.

Are Reservations In Jobs Justified? : THE BEGINNING

No, They Aren't: The very idea of providing reservations to any segment of the population is based on negatives. It allows for preferential treatment without a thought being given to the caliber or eligibility aspect. Just about any individual from the reserved castes scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and backward castes can get a Government job or admission in an educational institution on a much lower eligibility criterion for percentage of marks and a higher age. This lowering of standard breeds inefficiency, discourages the really meritorious and negates the very concept of equality of opportunity. 49.5 percent reservation means that half the administrative machinery has inbuilt inefficiency, while Article 335 of our Constitution lays down that reservation should be consistent with the maintenance of efficiency of administration.
By rejecting people of higher competence from general category and accepting the reserved category with lower competence, the reservation policy acts as a disincentive to the meritorious and more capable. Thus inhibits healthy growth or development of an individual. Such brilliant students, victims of unfair favoritism of our reservation policy, get frustrated and leave for foreign countries which favor merit alone. This brain-drain adversely affects the intellectual capability of our country. Not only this, the system of reservation, says Justice Chinnappa Reddy, has in many cases paradoxically generated “a spirit of self-denigration” - each community of caste competing to be more backward than others.
Private enterprises, being interested in efficiency alone, do not follow the retrograde policy of reservation. Their sole criterion of selecting people is merit and ability to deliver the goods. This is why they are doing extremely well. But, of late, demands for introducing reservations in private sector have been raised in some influential quarters. Should this come about, God save whatever efficiency we still have in at least a few segments of our administration and economy.
It is a shame that in this computer and space age we, by institutionalizing our reservation policy, admit that we are a decadent society based on caste. What image does it convey in the international field? Can casteism be done away with by having caste based reservations? Should we not follow economic criterion instead so that only a few families do not benefit perpetually by this unfair policy? The criterion of creamy layer is patently humbug, for it is so applied that even those with sufficient means and standing in society succeed in getting the benefit of reservation. All this breeds discontent and occasions social unrest. Therefore, the sooner we do away with reservations the better for the nation.
Reservations were supposed to be an interim arrangement for 10 years as per our constitution so that the low caste people could come up socially. But encouraged by our shortsighted politicians with their sights fixed on this sizeable vote-bank, its beneficiaries have formed it into a habit to claim reservation as a matter of right. Instead of striving hard to excel, they seek the shortcut of reservations and the vested political interests perpetuate it. This vicious circle can be broken by the Government by having a firm cutoff year for reservations and spreading education among the depressed classes on a priority basis. But can we do so by assigning low priority to education with a mere 4 percent budget allocation for it?
Instead of facilitating spatial growth of education and development among the depressed classes, reservations have spawned a new elitist group a mere 5 percent among them, which has cornered all the benefits meant for 22.5 per cent. The same is going to be the fate of the most backwards among backward classes.
A further reservation of 27 percent to the other backward classes has aggravated the employment problem and has formed caste animosities and hatred. This retrograde step is not going to do any good to the nation. In the name of social justice, an injustice of the worst type is being perpetrated because of the accident of birth in a higher caste. Moreover, the argument that since the new reserved categories have suffered injustice through centuries at the hands of upper caste people, the latter should atone for that, is beyond comprehension. How could a young boy or girl be held responsible and guilty for an alleged crime supposed to have been committed by his or her forefathers? Two wrongs do not make one right?The only hope of the children of ordinary families for a better future is through education and open-to-all competitive examination. This has been shattered by the additional 27 per cent job quota for other Backward Class (BC) candidates following acceptance of the Mandal Commission Report. That is why they resorted to agitation and even self-immolation, but to no avail. It has further fractured our caste-ridden society. The author of the Mandal Commission Report himself admits that the system followed by the Commission in compiling the list is unscientific.
It is really damaging to the nation as a whole that instead of tackling our population problem largely due to the illiterate, backward and superstitious people of backward classes, we give them the lollipop of reservations! In spite of their wretchedness and poverty they produce more children and make the life of these innocents more miserable than theirs. Therefore, if at all reservations are to be given they must be linked with adoption of family-planning methods. This will prove to be an effective deterrent against population explosion and will also benefit these classes themselves.

Superb Story

A little boy went to his old grandpa and asked, "What's the value of life?"

The grandpa gave him one stone and said, "Find out the value of this stone, but don't sell it."

The boy took the stone to an Orange Seller and asked him what its cost would be.

The Orange Seller saw the shiny stone and said, "You can take 12 oranges and give me the stone."

The boy apologized and said that the grandpa has asked him not to sell it.

He went ahead and found a vegetable seller.

"What could be the value of this stone?" he asked the vegetable seller.

The seller saw the shiny stone and said, "Take one sack of potatoes and give me the stone."

The boy again apologized and said he can't sell it.

Further ahead, he went into a jewellery shop and asked the value of the stone.

The jeweler saw the stone under a lens and said, "I'll give you 1 million for this stone." 

When the boy shook his head, the jeweler said, "Alright, alright, take 2 24karat gold necklaces, but give me the stone."

The boy explained that he can't sell the stone.

Further ahead, the boy saw a precious stone's shop and asked the seller the value of this stone.

When the precious stone's seller saw the big ruby, he lay down a red cloth and put the ruby on it.

Then he walked in circles around the ruby and bent down and touched his head in front of the ruby. "From where did you bring this priceless ruby from?" he asked.

"Even if I sell the whole world, and my life, I won't

be able to purchase this priceless stone."

Stunned and confused, the boy returned to the grandpa and told him what had happened. 

"Now tell me what is the value of life, grandpa?"

Grandpa said, 

"The answers you got from the Orange Seller, the Vegetable Seller, the Jeweler & the Precious Stone's Seller explain the value of our life...

You may be a precious stone, even priceless, but, people will value you based on their intellectual status, their level of information, their belief in you, their motive behind entertaining you, their ambition, their risk taking ability & ultimately their calibre. 

So don't fear, you will surely find someone who will discern your true value."

*Respect yourself.*

*Don't sell yourself cheap.*

*You are rare, Unique, Original and the only one of ur kind.*

*Your are a masterpiece because u r MASTER'S PIECE.*

*No one can Replace you.*

*Great Life*👍🏻👍🏻 💐💐💐

Halfway down the road : A status check on Modi Government's halftime

To pass a judgement on any government’s performance is the most enjoyable and simultaneously most complex of tasks! Every conceivable factor can play a role in the judgement – personal inclinations, likings and hatred, cold facts, environmental factors and variables unknown and unseen. And if the government is led by a man called Narendra Modi, even a hibernating intellectual retired into oblivion can be aroused to an electric performance of emotions, such is the nature of things today!

Before we even speak of the "Modi Atomic Explosion against Black Money" through his move to render Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes invalid, we take a look at the past 2.5 years!

Multiple internal and external factors impinge heavily on the performance of a government. These include – the state of economic and political governance during the immediate past, the policy direction of previous governments, general developmental atmosphere in the economy, natural factors that come unannounced, global economic outlook, emerging political conditions across the world, the state of our international relations, and interplay between multiple state agencies and authorities.

Welcome to the hot seat, Narendrabhai!

The Background 

The present Indian government, which assumed office in May 2014, is half way through its five year tenure. Since the previous government’s ouster was in the midst of an aggressive anti-corruption hype and loud calls for reinvigorating economic growth, expectations were sky-high. Further, fuel to the fire of hope was added by the incumbent’s own election campaign which was all-pervasive, heavily-funded, smartly designed and multifaceted. The ouster of UPA 2 and the inauguration of NDA was felt almost as an epochal moment. Things were about to get redesigned, reengineered and transformed magically.

Alas! The Indians electorate often makes this mistake. We underestimate our own gargantuan size, mind-boggling complexity and the sheer comfortable inertia we have settled in, and hope for a messenger from the heavens to set things right overnight. We want everyone to change things for us except us doing the hard part! And the present government, like earlier ones, has repeatedly felt the heavy burden of this anomaly of the Indian mindset. We forget the defining words of Gandhiji – Be the change you wish to see in the world.

• India - Key facts, statistics, numbers (all data for 2015 or running 2016)
• Population - 133 crores (1.33 billion), GDP nominal - $2.25 trillion - Seventh globally, GDP PPP - $8.7 trillion - Third globally, GDP growth rate - 7.6%, GDP per capita nominal - $ 1718 (140th globally), GDP per capita PPP - $ 6658 (122nd globally), GDP composition - Services 50% plus, rest Industry + Services, Ease of Doing Business rank - 130, Exports - $ 273 billion, Imports - $ 410 billion, Forex reserves - $ 370 billion (8th globally)

30 months arguably is too short a period to assess the performance of any government in a vast, and hugely diverse country like India with multiple factors at play in tandem, including state governments that put to rest any ambitious project of the Centre through passive resignation.

Five focus areas of Narendra Modi government

• Belief and Optimism
• Recreate a sense of belief in India and Indians, through optimistic projections of the future. India is a young nation of 1.3 billion plus individuals, and if we together take one step, it is a huge forward march (his own words on 15 August celebrations). Indians love strong and passionate leaders (who doesn't) and Modi has exhorted huge crowds to be optimistic about India's future. It is a good starting point indeed. The tone in all his public speeches remains overtly optimistic - he knows that a leader is a dealer in hope! His dramatic anti-black money decision on 08th November, 2015 is a visible proof of his determination to go the whole hog.
• Restructuring of Governance
• Fundamentally restructure the governance processes, systems and approached through new methods, projects and work culture. Decades of ossified culture across government departments and widespread corruption has been eating away our own roots. Modi's style of making ministers take responsibility of even staff turning up on time in the morning reflects a sense of urgency about work output that's rarely seen in Indian politicians. His new projects and schemes usually span a huge scale, and are futuristic in vision. Best example - J A M - Jandhan - Aadhar - Mobile. 
• Arousing Citizen Ownership
• Make Indians realize that we have to change the status quo, and no one else (the most hazardous thing for any political party to say). An example – Swachh Bharat Abhiyaan – which expects citizens to demand a clean environment, free of garbage and clutter, and seeks their active participation in the process. This is a risky gambit, as results can be verified through individual experiences. This shows Modi's ability to take high-risk initiatives that can tarnish his own image. One wonders why no other top leader ever spoke of such a basic quality-of-life issue that directly affects citizens!
• International Outreach
• Rebuild the international outreach of Indian power to balance and check the multiple threats emanating from India’s enemies. Modi has been criticised, vilified, demeaned and made fun of on social media for being an NRI prime minister who rarely visits India! But today, as we see huge international developments that affect India directly, perhaps the detractors may also feel a sense of safety in having a PM who boldly reaches out to international leaders for help and takes enemies head-on. And yes, his habit of not taking any family members or unproductive individuals along, and the no-liquor on-board policy has endeared him to the cost-conscious for sure!
• Investment, Youth, Economy
• Draw foreign investment in through multiple new plans, including streamlining local complexities and hopefully rebuild Indian youth’s capabilities through skilling. This is the largely unfinished agenda - in fact, it has only just started. India needs a massive skilling drive to make its 1.1 million youth entering workforce each month, employable. That is yet to happen. Also to be seen is whether Modi's reliance on foreign investment driving local manufacturing bears fruit, especially given the tensions with China on multiple fronts. If Modi can pull this through in the next few years, he would have made it surely.

Almost all agree that the huge sense of negativity in the country on all fronts, including the economic one, in 2013-14, was the culmination of more than two years of near non-governance, indecisiveness, policy paralysis and a state of near political chaos. Corruption was seen as being out of control due to a series of mega-scams across sectors being exposed by authorities like the CAG, and gleefully picked up by a hungry, shrill media. Whether this turmoil was a fallout of a coalition government where everyone was the unquestionable King, or the failure of a quiet and sober Prime Minister assumed to be holding no direct final power, or plain simple rapacious greed to loot the nation – one will never be sure of.

He gets to work

So Modi assumed power, and set about in his trademark CEO style setting things in a new mould. It was apparent from his first speech from Red Fort – on 15 August 2014 – that he means business. And “business” here meant a new mould, with new terminologies and structures bearing little or no resemblance to years gone by. It was politically an astute move, as icons got redefined in the months to come. Incidentally, his “business-like” approach earned him strict opprobrium from political opponents who blamed him for being pro-rich and anti-poor!

If we ask those who understand governance and politics as to what has surely changed, the answer is unanimous – the government genuinely seems to be making all efforts to mend things, through clear and transparent policies. That it hasn’t percolated down fully is something no one is surprised about.

Modi immediately faced three challenges 

• Monsoon headwinds!
• A two-year spell of poor monsoon, enough to make any government shake in its boots. Modi govt. gradually adapted to the situation, announcing some big-ticket insurance schemes (non-starter so far) and other relief measures
• Political friction
• Constant and brutal criticism by almost all other political parties, and entire media bar a few. Modi's trademark style is to focus on his work and projects, and let that do the talking.
• Global headwinds
• Economic, political & strategic – that seemed insurmountable. However, constant engagement with world leaders and economically powerful nations is beginning to show some positive traction for India

And his approach to tackle these immediate challenges was clear - Multiple new schemes and projects to assure farmers of minimum risk in farming, Focussing on delivering and not responding to every criticism, Reaching out to all major nations to rebuild bridges and recreate confidence.

The government's desire to redesign the processes and icons of governance in his own mould is nowhere more visible than the branding adopted to do that.

• Restructuring of icons and public consciousness
• Deen Dayal Upadhyay Gram Kaushal Yojana – DDU-GKY, Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana – National Urban Livelihoods Mission – DAY-NULM, Atal Pension Yojana, AMRUT - Atal Mission for Rejuvenation of Urban Transport (earlier JNNURM), NITI Aayog (earlier Planning Commission), AAYUSH Ministry, Pradhanmantri Jan Dhan Yojana, J – A – M scheme, Atal Innovation Mission, Namami Gange etc.

Since this is how icons are created and brands built, Modi will leave his footprints for a long time.

The economy and structural reforms

On the economy front, despite all doubts about the rate of GDP growth, India has been steadily growing at a pace others would be envious of – more than 7 percent per annum. We are well ahead of almost all major global economies, which seem stuck in a global economic lull.

• Fundamental and structural reforms process in critical areas
• Sectors that have witnessed reforms to push speed are * agriculture *  labour laws * financial regulations and monetary policy * insolvency and bankruptcy code * transparent auctions of telecom spectrums and other resources * ease of doing business * direct benefit transfer to deliver cash subsidies * Enactment of the GST Act * FDI policy for infrastructural projects * defence and railways * Extension of industrial licenses etc. Also, the investment outlook is looking up, despite gross challenges of apathy and bureaucratic delays at state and local levels. The economy is making a steady (albeit slow at times) progress in almost all important global indices that matter.  The government seems determined to contain the current account deficit (CAD) within reasonable limits, and ensure fiscal consolidation, aided by a non-recovery of global commodity prices which acts as a blessing for a net commodity importer nation India. And finally, he dropped his bombshell on horders of black money on the night of 08th of November, 2016, reforming the entire economy in one stroke!

Implementation and transparency dashboards

Equally crucial is the government’s constant monitoring of the progress of its policy initiatives from the highest level, which has kept the bureaucracy on its toes. Most international institutions like the IMF and the World Bank have hailed the reforms process undertaken by the government. Multiple transparent dashboards (some of which existed before too) have brought in the much needed visibility to work.

• Transparency Dashboards for public scrutiny
• Various examples are * eTaal - Electronic transaction aggregation and analysis layer  * GARV dashboard - Online monitoring of rural electrification  * National Ujala dashboard - cutting carbon emissions through LEDs  *  VidyutPravah - check pricing of Electricity Boards etc. The courage shown in bringing this out in the open needs appreciation as failure to achieve targets will be publicly visible, and opprobrium earned, and Modi govt. surely would know that.

Poverty concerns

The government’s efforts on the rural and social issues concerning the poorer classes of the society are also novel initiatives. These include the Jan-Dhan Yojana, the Direct Benefit Transfer scheme, Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, Soil health card scheme, Atal Pension yojana., Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, Housing for all scheme, etc. These initiatives are directed towards building  a more inclusive society. They will take some time to show results.

The road ahead

However, there are still certain grey areas where a lot needs to be done, most of it complex. These include the banking sector, which is reeling under the huge pressure of non-performing assets. Fixed capital formation is another area that needs immediate attention of the government.

• Criticism of PM Modi and his government
• Authoritarian style of functioning, Insensitive to weaker sections of society, Bringing too much change too fast, Leveraging the Hindu card from time to time, Promising the moon without a basis in reality, Poor bandwidth of ministerial capabilities, Lack of freedom to work, Throttles media freedom (latest), Pro-rich and not pro-poor 

Job creation is one other major area of concern that is increasing the restlessness among bulging youth demographics. This was one of the big election promises that the government had made, but it has largely remained unfulfilled so far, due to slow rate of structural transformation of education and skilling sector, and its interface with manufacturing.

In the face of strong regional opponents but no major national rival, PM Narendra Modi seems all set to cruise along the remaining tenure with minimal friction. His electoral reverses in some states like Delhi and Bihar have been largely forgotten, and if he returns post the 2019 general elections, his unique stamp on India’s political history would have been cast deeply.

India, meanwhile, awaits a shift from a low-income to a middle-income nation status. Indians still await accessible and affordable medicine, easy public transport, clean air to breathe and a system that listens and supports the aspirations of 1.33 billion individuals. The last number grew a bit by the time you read this blog ;)

• The Modi Atomic Explosion against Black Money
• On the evening of 08th of November, 2016, unknown to most outside the Council of Ministers, the most dramtic anti-black money step was announced by PM Modi personally on national television. He declared all Rs.500 and Rs.1000 notes as invalid legal tender from 12 midnight the same day! This has brought into sharp focus the government's massive drive against black money, Hawala-funded terror activities and massive widespread corruption across government offices and ministries. The development will have far-reaching transformational effects. 

कैसे...

टूट जाए ना भरम होंठ हिलाउ कैसे,
हाल जैसा भी हो लोगों को सुनाउ कैसे...

खुश्क आँखों से भी अश्कों की महक आती है,
मैं उस के गम को ज़माने से छुपाउँ  कैसे.....

फूल होता तो मैं उस के दर पे सज़ा भी देता,
ज़ख़्म ले के उसकी दहलीज़ पे जाउ कैसे....

वो रुलाता है तो जी भर के रुलाए मुझे,
वो मेरी आँखें है, मैं उसको रूलाउँ कैसे.....

सीने में जलन, आँखों में तूफ़ान सा क्यों है

	सीने में जलन, आँखों में तूफ़ान सा क्यों है इस शहर में हर शख्स परेशान सा क्यों है दिल है तो धड़कने का बहाना कोई ढूंढें पत्थर की तरह बेहिस-ओ-बेजान सा क्यों है तनहाई की ये कौनसी मंज़िल है रफीकों ता-हद-ए-नजर एक बयाबान सा क्यों है क्या कोई नयी बात नज़र आती है हम में आईना हमे देख के हैरान सा क्यों है